Population Ageing is a process when the proportion of older persons increases, accompanied by reductions in the proportion of children and then by declines in the proportion of persons of working age.
Population Ageing is a summary term for shifts in the age distribution of the population towards old age.
How does Population Age-Sex pyramid change due to Ageing?
The bell shape pyramid changes to a barrel-like shape with a smaller base and a comparatively broader apex.
What are the reasons for the current change in age structure?
The global fertility transition and the mortality decline at older ages are the reasons for the current change in age structure.
Demographic drivers of population ageing :
Ageing is driven by fertility and mortality associated with several factors such as socio-economic development.
Advantages of Ageing :
- Reducing child mortality.
- Improving access to education
- Employment opportunities
- Advancing gender equality
- Promoting reproductive health
- Access to family planning has all contributed to reductions in birth rates
- Advancements in public health and
- Medical technologies,
- Along with improvements in living conditions,
- People are living longer
- In many cases, healthier lives than ever before, particularly at advanced ages.
The immediate cause of population ageing is Fertility decline. However, improved longevity contributes as well.
Life Expectancy :
- Significant changes in life expectancy at birth surpassing 80 years are projected for Europe/ Latin America / the Caribbean / North America, and Oceania.
- It will reach 80 years in Asia
- It will be 70 years for Africa.
Facts :
In 2045 the number of older persons in the world is expected to exceed the number of children for the first time at the world level.
The number of children dropped below that of older persons in 1998.
Trends and Patterns of Population Ageing :
Population ageing is taking place in every country. There are three essential factors as
- Increased longevity
- Declining fertility
- The ageing of “baby boom” generations
Increased longevity :
- In most parts of the world, people are living significantly more as compared to previous decades.
- Life Expectancy increased by two decades since 1950 (from 48 years in 1950–55 to 68 years in 2005-10), and in 2050, it will rise further to 76 years.
Declining fertility :
- The world’s total fertility rate fell from 5 children per woman in 1950 to roughly 2.5 today and is projected to drop further to about 2.1 by 2050.
- As families have fewer children, the elderly share of the population naturally increases.
The ageing of baby boom generations :
The ageing of large cohorts of children born after World War II in the United States – paralleled by similar booms elsewhere at various times – is leading to high shares of elderly people.
Process of Population Ageing :
- The process of global population ageing is known as the “demographic transition.”
- A process whereby reductions in mortality, particularly at young ages, are followed by declines in fertility.
- Decreasing fertility along with increasing life expectancy has reshaped the age structure of the population by shifting the population from younger to older groups.
- Decreasing fertility has been the primary cause of population ageing.
- As fertility moves steadily to lower levels. As a result, people of reproductive age have fewer children than older generations.
- It leads to a reduction in the proportion of children and young persons in a population and an increase in the balances in older groups.
- Older persons are growing faster than the numbers of people in any other age group.
- In Developed countries, it already started more than a century ago, but for developing countries, it has occurred later, including the decline in fertility.
- In 2015, worldwide, one out of eight people will be age 60+ years.
- By 2030, worldwide, one out of eight people will be older age.
- By the middle of the 21st century, one of the five people will be 60 years or over.
- By 2030 older persons will outnumber children aged 0-9 years. (1.4 Billion vs 1.3 Billion)
- In 2000, the population aged 60 years or over numbered 600 million, triple the number present in 1950
- In 2009, the number of older persons surpassed 700 million
- By 2050, 2 billion older persons are projected to be alive. Their number will triple over a span of 50 years.
- Globally the population of older persons is growing at a rate of 2.6% per year, considerably faster than the population as a whole, which is increasing by 1.2% annually.
- At the global level, 8 per cent of the population was at least 60 years of age in 1950, and 5 per cent was at least 65 years of age.
- By 2009, those proportions had increased to 11 per cent and nearly 8 per cent, respectively.
- By 2050, 22 per cent of the world population is projected to be 60 years or over, and 16 per cent will likely be 65 years or over.
Japan :
- Japan is the destination of the world population ageing.
- The projection indicates that the proportion aged 60 years or over globally will increase by more than 4% points over the next 15 years.
- Population changes for 60+ population 12.3% in 2015 to 16.5% in 2030
- By 2030, older persons are expected to account for more than 25 % of the populations in Europe and in Northern America,
- 20 % in Oceania, 17 % in Asia, in Latin America and in the
- The Caribbean, and 6 % in Africa.
In 2050, 44 % of the world’s population will live in relatively aged countries, with at least 20 % of the population aged 60 years or over.
One in four people will live in a country where more than 30 per cent of people are above age 60.
Recent Ageing Situation
- The global population aged 60 years or over numbered 962 million in 2017, more than twice as large as in 1980, when there were 382 million older persons worldwide.
- The number of older persons is expected to double again by 2050 when it is projected to reach nearly 2.1 billion.
- Globally, the number of people aged 80 years or over is growing even faster than the number of older persons overall.
- Projections indicate that the number of people aged 80 or over worldwide will increase more than threefold between 2017 and 2050, rising from 137 million to 425 million.
- Two-thirds of the world’s older people live in developing regions, where their numbers are growing faster than in developed areas.
- In 2050, it is expected that nearly 8 in 10 of the world’s older persons will be living in developing regions.
- Globally, during 2010-2015, women outlived men by an average of 4.6 years.
- As a result, women accounted for 54 per cent of the global population aged 60 years or over and 61 per cent of those aged 80 years or over in 2017.
- The number of older persons is growing faster in urban areas than in rural areas.
- At the global level, between 2000 and 2015, the number of people aged 60 years or over increased by 68 per cent in urban areas, compared to 25 per cent in rural areas.
- In 2050, two out of every three persons aged 80 years or over will live in developing regions.
Ageing in Developing countries vs Developed countries
- In more developed regions, over a fifth of the population is currently aged 60 years or over, and by 2050, nearly a third of the people in developed countries are projected.
- In the less developed regions, older persons account for just 8 per cent of the population, but by 2050, they are expected to account for a fifth of the population.
- By the mid-century, the developing world is likely to reach the same stage in the process of population ageing that the developed world is already at.
- Between 2017 and 2050, the number of older persons is expected to grow fastest in Africa with a projected 229 per cent increase in the population aged 60 years or over, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (161 per cent) and Asia (132 per cent).
- Europe and Northern America are projected to see substantial increases in the number of older persons, but the growth will be slower than in the other regions.
- Between 2017 and 2050, the growth in the number of older persons will be the fastest in low-income countries.
- Virtually every country in the world will experience a substantial increase in the size of the population aged 60 years or over between 2017 and 2050.
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